Acceleration of climate risks for European protected areas
All ecosystems are affected by climate change, but some areas will undergo more rapid changes than others. Understanding these patterns is essential for evaluating the resilience of existing protected areas and planning their future expansion.
An international study carried out by Sapienza’s Department of Biology and Biotechnology “Charles Darwin”, as part of Horizon Europe’s “NaturaConnect” project, identified the European protected areas most vulnerable to climate change, as well as the “climate refuges” where change will be slowest. The research, published in the journal Global Change Biology, has important implications for biodiversity conservation policies in Europe.
‘Climate change is accelerating faster than expected, and the risk within Europe's protected areas is as high as, if not higher than, outside them,’ says Moreno Di Marco, the study's senior author and head of Sapienza's Biodiversity & Global Change laboratory. ‘In this context, identifying the most vulnerable areas is crucial for directing conservation efforts towards climate adaptation measures, such as enhancing ecological connectivity and implementing environmental restoration interventions under the recent Nature Restoration Act.’
Using the most up-to-date models currently available, the research shows that climate change has not been adequately taken into account in the design of the existing network of protected areas, jeopardising their effectiveness as refuges for biodiversity in the medium to long term.
'This work allowed us to quantify the speed and magnitude of future climate change, and to compare the exposure of protected areas with that of unprotected areas,' says Marta Cimatti, first author of the study. Our results show that many European species already considered to be at risk are restricted to areas that could undergo sudden climate change. These include iconic species such as the Iberian lynx and lesser-known species such as the Pyrenean frog,' continues Valerio Mezzanotte, the study's other first author.
The research is a crucial step towards climate-proofing protected areas, ensuring the definition of an effective Trans-European Nature Network (TEN-N) even in a rapidly changing climate context.
References:
M. Cimatti, V. Mezzanotte, R. Heikkinen, M. Hällfors, D. Karger, M. Di Marco (2025). The accelerating exposure of European protected areas to climate change. Global Change Biology. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.70261
Further Information:
Moreno Di Marco
Department of Biology and Biotechnology “Charles Darwin”
Marta Cimatti
Department of Biology and Biotechnology “Charles Darwin”
Valerio Mezzanotte
Department of Biology and Biotechnology “Charles Darwin”
valerio.mezzanotte@uniroma1.it
